| 摘要: |
| 为了对填海造地工程效应进行测算，以福建省厦门市五缘湾为例，运用模糊数学综合决策模型，从社会、经济、环境和联动等4个方面构建效应测算指标体系，并根据五缘湾填海造地工程实际进行调整，利用专家估测法确定指标权重，分别得到各层次的评价指标向量，再对评价集 V 进行赋分，得到五缘湾填海造地工程“好”和“较好”的隶属度达到0.80，说明该填海造地工程综合效应较好，是一个较为成功的填海造地案例.从一级评价指标分析来看，该案例在社会效应和联动效应方面比较成功，“好”的隶属度分别达到0.73和0.90.从二级评价指标分析来看，该案例在社会效益、社会适应性、环境质量和地区适应性方面比较好，“好”的隶属度分别达到0.76、0.71、0.51和0.90；而在冲淤环境和资源环境方面有所不足，隶属度的最大值分别位于“一般”或“较差”.该评价结果与实际情况基本一致，验证了其科学性和有效性. |
| 关键词: 海洋环境科学 填海造地 效应测算 模糊数学 五缘湾 |
| DOI：10.3969/J.ISSN.2095-4972.2018.01.012 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC1401903)；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项资金资助项目(JT1503) |
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| A research on the effect estimates of the land reclamation projects based on the fuzzy mathematics——in case of Wuyuanwan area, Fujian Province |
| REN Guang-chao,ZHANG Xiao-li,WAN Yuan |
| (College of Economic and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;Center for Ocean Economy, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;College of Jewelry, Shanghai Jianqiao University , Shanghai 201306, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to estimating the effect of the land reclamation projects, we use the fuzzy mathematics comprehensive decision making model to build the effect measure index system from the data of social, economic, environmental and linkage. Then, it is adjusted by the actual Wuyuanwan project and determined the index weight by experts estimate method. Based on the valuation index vector obtained and the evaluation set assigned, the results show that valuations of Wuyuanwan project as “good” and “the better” reached 0.80. It means that the combined effect of Wuyuanwan project is a successful case. From the index analysis of first level evaluation, the case in terms of social effect and political effect are much successful, the "good" reached 0.73 and 0.90. From the second evaluation index analysis, the case in the social benefit, social adaptability, environmental quality and regional adaptability are better, the “good” reached 0.76, 0.71, 0.51 and 0.90. But the erosion and deposition environment and resources environment are insufficient, the maximum degree is assigned as “general” or “poor”. The evaluation results are basically verified in accordance with the actual situation, its scientific nature and effectiveness. |
| Key words: marine environmental science land reclamation effect estimates fuzzy mathematics Wuyuanwan area |
