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快速开发背景下海岛的生态安全评价——以平潭岛为例
孙会荟,高升,曹广喜
0
(南京审计大学沁园书院,江苏 南京 211815;南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,江苏 南京 210044)
摘要:
随着人类活动的加剧与社会经济的持续发展,对海岛的开发日益剧烈.动态评价海岛开发建设过程中的生态安全状况是提出生态环境保护对策的前提;深入分析影响海岛生态安全的主要影响因子是准确调整海岛发展政策的客观依据,对缓解海岛开发建设与生态安全的矛盾,实现海岛建设与生态环境相互协调具有重要意义.本研究依据平潭岛的实际情况筛选出34个评价因子构建生态安全评价指标体系,指标涵盖社会、经济、环境3个方面.采用熵权法计算各评价指标权重提高了评价的客观性与准确性,通过主成分投影法对平潭岛2005—2015年的生态安全状况进行动态评价,探讨了平潭岛生态安全的变化状况.其中生态安全状况最差与最好的年份分别为2006、2011年,2006年的生态安全投影值最小,只有0.004 1;2011年的生态安全投影值最高,为0.178 1.绘制生态安全状况趋势图发现2009—2011年生态安全投影值的变化最为明显.通过灰色关联法进行驱动力分析发现社会消费品零售总额增长率、财政总支出、固定资产投资额增长率、工业总值增长率、接待旅游人数、城镇人口失业率、水产品总产量、生活垃圾无害化处理率、耕地年均损失率等9个社会经济指标对平潭岛的生态安全状况起到关键影响.
关键词:  海洋环境科学  生态安全评价  熵权法  主成分投影法  灰色关联分析  平潭岛
DOI:10.3969/J.ISSN.2095-4972.2018.04.012
基金项目:江苏省社科应用研究精品工程财经发展专项课题资助项目(17SCB-14);江苏省社会科学基金资助项目(17GLB003);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究资助项目(2017SJA025);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2017ZDAXM005)
Ecological security assessment for islands under rapid development with a case study in Pingtan Island
SUN Hui-hui,GAO Sheng,CAO Guang-xi
(Qinyuan Academy, Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing 211815,China;School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)
Abstract:
With the intensification of human activities and the sustainable development of the social economy, the exploitation of islands has intensified. Dynamic evaluation of the ecological security status in the development of island is a prerequisite for proposing ecological environmental protection measures. In-depth analysis of the main factors affecting island ecological security is an objective basis for accurately adjusting island development policies. It is of great significance to alleviate the contradiction between island development and ecological security and realize the coordination between island construction and ecological environment. Based on the case in Pingtan Island, this study screened 34 evaluation factors to construct an ecological safety evaluation index system. The indexes cover social, economic and environmental aspects. Using entropy weight method to calculate the weight of each evaluation index improves the objectivity and accuracy of the evaluation. Based on entropy weight method, the ecological security of Pingtan Island from 2005 to 2015 was evaluated dynamically by principal component projection method, and the objectivity and accuracy of the evaluation were improved. It is found that the worst and the best years of ecological security situation were 2006 and 2011, respectively. The ecological security projection value in 2006 was the smallest and it was only 0.004 1. The highest ecological security projection value in 2011 was 0.178 1. Based on the map of ecological security situation, it is found that the ecological security projection value in 2009 and 2011 changed obviously. The driving force analysis showed that 9 social and economic indicators, including the total retail sales of social consumer goods growth rate, financial expenditure, fixed asset investment growth rate, industrial growth rate, tourist number, unemployment rate, total output of aquatic products, garbage harmless treatment rate, average annual loss rate of cultivated land, of ecological security situation of Pingtan Island play important influence with the grey correlation method.
Key words:  marine environmental science  ecological safety evaluation  entropy weight method  key composition projection method  driving force analysis  Pingtan Island

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