| 摘要: |
| 观测事实表明，近百年来全球气候经历了显著的变暖过程，并且在人类活动排放的CO2等温室气体不断增加的前提下，未来变暖将会持续下去.利用IPCC 第五次评估报告中34个CMIP5模式对于未来不同CO2排放情景下的输出结果，评估了未来百年中国近海海表温度（SST）的变化趋势.结果表明，基于当前人类的CO2典型排放速度（RCP4.5），中国近海的大部分海区在2030年以后普遍升温并将接近或超过1℃（相对于1970～2005年的历史海温）.其中，中高纬度海区的升温速率最为明显，黄海、渤海和东海的增温幅度明显高于南海，在2030～2039、2060～2069年和2090～2099年间的升温将会分别超过1、2℃和3℃左右.在CO2加倍排放的情景下（RCP8.5），渤海在21世纪末最大升温可能接近5℃，从而成为全球升温幅度最大的区域之一.由此可见，未来气候变暖背景下中国近海的环境生态将面临严重挑战，这也使得控制减少温室气体的排放、降低气候变化的风险成为当前的紧迫议题. |
| 关键词: 物理海洋学 海表温度 CMIP5 中国近海 预估升温 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:中国清洁机制发展基金赠款资助项目(2014112)；国家海洋局第三海洋研究所基本科研业务费专项经费资助项目(海三科2015030) |
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| Projected 21st century sea surface temperature over offshore China based on IPCC-CMIP5 models |
| TAN Hongjian,CAI Rongshuo,YAN Xiuhua |
| (Center for Monsoon System Research， Institute of Atmospheric Physics， Chinese Academy of Science， Beijing 100190， China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences， Beijing 100049， China;Key Lab of Global Change and MarineAtmospheric Chemistry， Third Institute of Oceanography， SOA， Xiamen 361005， China) |
| Abstract: |
| The observations of the increasing greenhouse gases driving the global warming over the past century shows that the warming will continue in the future. In this study， the trend of sea surface temperature （SST） over offshore China in the 21st century is assessed based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project （CMIP5）. The results show that under the midrange mitigation emissions scenario （RCP4.5）， SST over most of offshore China will increase by nearly 1℃around the year 2030 relative to the historical period （1970~2005）. SST in the middle and high latitudes sea areas will rise faster than that of low latitude. Specifically， the East China Seas （including Bohai sea， Yellow sea and East China sea） will increase by about 1℃， 2℃， and 3℃ between the period 2030~2039，2060~2069， and 2090~2099， respectively， the magnitude of which are larger than that in the South China Sea. Under the doubled CO2 emissions scenario （RCP8.5）， the Bohai sea SST will rise up by about 5℃ by the end of the 21st century， and it will be the biggest warming areas in the world. These changes will pose serious risks to marine ecosystems and society on and around offshore China. It is an impress issue to curb the greenhouse gas discharge and bring down the risks of climatic changes． |
| Key words: physical oceanography SST CMIP5 offshore China projected warming |
