| 摘要: |
| 海岸带地区景观演变的驱动力研究是区域内在演化规律研究的重要组成部分，对于指导合理利用景观，控制人工景观规模，保护生态环境等都有着不可替代的作用.本文以杭州湾南岸的沿海乡镇区域为研究对象，在利用GIS及相关的数理统计软件分析杭州湾滨海平原区2000～2010年来景观演化时空变化特征的基础上，运用GISLogistic的耦合模型从空间角度深入分析了杭州湾沿海乡镇重要景观演化的驱动力.研究结果表明：近10 a来，耕地、海域等自然景观类型呈现出不断减少的趋势，建设用地、养殖用地等景观类型保持持续增长的态势；在以乡镇为单位的中小尺度研究中，纯自然驱动因素（如气候、降水等）较人文驱动因素的影响相对较弱，而县道等区位因素对于景观类型演变的影响相对较为明显，表征经济发展的人口、工业水平、工业产值等对于杭州湾南岸岸段各景观类型的演化具有较强的驱动作用. |
| 关键词: 海洋环境科学 GIS Logistic耦合模型 景观演变 驱动力 杭州湾南岸 |
| DOI：10.3969/J.ISSN.2095-4972.2016.01.009 |
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| 基金项目:浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(Y5110321)；国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171073，41471004，71203108，41401389)；浙江省大学生科技创新活动计划资助项目(2014R405076，2014R405091) |
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| Analysis on the driving force of landscape evolvement of Hangzhou Bay based on GIS Logistic coupling model |
| XU Liang hui,YANG Lei,LI Jia lin,LIU Yong chao,SUN Wei wei |
| (Department of Urban Science， Ningbo University， Ningbo 315211， China; Ningbo Shuguang Middle School，Zhejiang
Province， Ningbo 315040, China;;Ocean Culture and Economic Research Center， Zhejiang Province， Ningbo 315211， China) |
| Abstract: |
| As an important constituent part of the regional evolvement rule research， the study on driving force of coastal landscape evolvement plays an irreplaceable role on rationally utilizing landscape， controlling the scale of the artificial landscape and protecting ecological environment. Here， coastal towns in the south bank of Hangzhou Bay were selected as the study area， and GIS and statistics methods were adopted to analyze temporal-spatial characteristic of the landscape evolvement of towns from 2000 to 2010. Further， this paper used GIS-Logistic coupling model to explore the driving forces of coastal landscape evolvement in a spatial perspective. The result revealed that types of natural landscapes （e.g. cultivated land and sea area） tended to decline， while landscape types， such as lands for construction and aquiculture， were increasing. As studied in meso-micro scale， the impact of natural driving factors （e.g. climate， precipitation） on landscape evolvement was weaker than humanity factors， while locational factors like county roads significantly influenced landscape type evolvement. It indicated that economy factors presented by factors of population， industrial level and industrial production had profound effects on the evolvement of landscape types in coastal region of the south bank of Hangzhou Bay． |
| Key words: marine environmental science GIS-Logistic coupling model landscape evolvement driving force the south bank of Hangzhou Bay |
